Journal of Political Economy

Men who father their first child at a very young age are convicted of significantly fewer crimes in the first years after birth if the child is a son rather than a daughter. This leads to behavioral spillovers that reduce criminal convictions among other young men living in the same neighborhood, with the resulting crime multipliers affecting peers’ crime even after the primary impact on the focal individual has dissipated. Through social multipliers, prevention policies that target potential criminals at an early stage, therefore, lead to larger reductions in the cost of crime than suggested by primary effects alone.

We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina’s sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism.

In many industries, upstream manufacturers pay downstream retailers for achieving quantity or market share targets. These “vertical rebates” may mitigate downstream moral hazard by inducing greater retail effort but may also incentivize retailers to drop competing products. We study these offsetting effects empirically for a rebate paid to one retailer. Using a field experiment, we exogenously vary the outcome of retailer effort. We estimate models of consumer choice and retailer behavior to quantify the rebate’s effect on retail assortment and effort. We find that the rebate is designed to exclude a competing product and fails to maximize social surplus.

This paper studies the industry-level and aggregate implications of financial development on international trade. I set up a multi-industry general equilibrium model of international trade with input-output linkages and heterogeneous firms subject to financial frictions. Industries differ in capital intensity, which leads to differences in external finance dependence. The model is parameterized to match key features of firm-level data. Financial development leads to substantial reallocation of international trade shares from labor- to capital-intensive industries, with minor effects at the aggregate level. These findings are consistent with estimates from cross-country industry-level and aggregate data.

Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are close. We develop the concept of forecast hedging, which consists of choosing the forecasts so as to guarantee that the expected track record can only improve. This yields all the calibration results by the same simple basic argument while differentiating between them by the forecast-hedging tools used: deterministic and fixed point based versus stochastic and minimax based. Additional contributions are an improved definition of continuous calibration, ensuing game dynamics that yield Nash equilibria in the long run, and a new calibrated forecasting procedure for binary events that is simpler than all known such procedures.

We build a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model to study the economic effects of the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. In our model, trade is costly and households of different skills and nationalities face costly forward-looking migration decisions. We exploit the timing of migration policy changes to identify the changes in migration costs. We find that the changes in migration and trade policy resulted in aggregate welfare gains but with heterogeneous effects across skill groups. We study the interaction between trade and migration policies and highlight the importance of trade for quantifying the welfare and migration effects of labor market integration.