Journal of Labor Economics

The past quarter-century has seen substantial change in the social safety nets for families with children in the United States and Canada. Both countries have moved away from cash welfare, but the United States has relied more on work requirements. We examine the implications for the employment and poverty of low-educated single mothers. We find that employment improved substantially in both countries, absolutely and relative to a control group of single women without children. Poverty rates also declined in both countries, with more of the decline coming through market income in the United States and benefit income in Canada.

Disability insurance take-up has expanded substantially in the past 20 years in the United States while shrinking in Canada. We empirically assess these trends by measuring the strength of the “push” from weak labor markets versus the “pull” of more generous benefits. Using an instrumental variables strategy comparing benefit changes across country, age, and year, we find that both benefits and regional wages matter. Simulations suggest that the upswing in disability insurance take-up in the United States would be reversed, dropping the caseload by 41% if benefits and wages had followed the growth path observed in Canada.

Mortality is a crucial indicator of well-being, and recent mortality trends have been a subject of public debate in many Western countries. This paper compares mortality inequality in Canada and the United States over the period 1990/91 through 2010/11. In Canada, mortality inequality remained constant among the youngest but increased for men over 24 and women over 14. In contrast, in the United States, mortality inequality fell for children and youth and either modestly increased or held steady at older ages. By 2010/11, the initially higher US rates of infant and child mortality had almost converged to their Canadian counterparts.

We compare patterns of unemployment between Canada and the United States during the Great Recession. We document a rise in long-term unemployment in Canada, similar to findings in earlier work. We consider an extended matching model using restricted-access data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey, which contains information on time since last job for both unemployed and nonparticipants. We create a new historical vacancy series for Canada based on relative employment in “recruiting industries” to construct a monthly Beveridge curve for Canada. Allowing for duration dependence in flows between unemployment and nonparticipation is crucial for explaining long-term joblessness.

We analyze changes in unemployment, marginal labor force attachment, and participation in Canada and the United States using consistent measurement concepts. We show the importance for the comparative evolution of aggregate unemployment of changes in the fraction of those “wanting work”—the unemployed and marginally attached. We also study changes in the fraction of the nonemployed who are unemployed. Using micro data on labor market transition behavior at these margins, we find remarkably consistent results in the two countries, with the marginally attached displaying behavior lying between unemployment and nonattachment. The three nonemployment states are distinct in both countries.

We examine data from Australia, Canada, and the United States to assess the potential for immigrant screening policies to influence the labor market performance of skilled immigrants. Our estimates point to improvements in employment rates and weekly earnings of male university-educated immigrants in all three countries concomitant with policy reforms. Nonetheless, the gains are modest in comparison to a substantial and persistent performance advantage of US skilled immigrants. Given that there is increasingly little to distinguish the screening policies of these countries, we interpret the US advantage as primarily reflecting the relative positive self-selectivity of US immigrants.

We show that, on the basis of the initial-screening point system used in Canada, immigrants who subsequently move to the United States are more highly educated than their counterparts from the same source countries in the United States and have much better outcomes. High-skill immigrants who transit through Canada before moving to the United States do so fairly early after arrival, and they represent a substantial share of the population of young, highly educated immigrants in Canada. Thus, Canada is best seen as a transitory destination rather than as a training ground for later emigration to the United States.

We examine US and Canadian local labor markets from 1990 to 2011 using comparable household and business data. Wage levels and inequality rise with city population in both countries, albeit less in Canada. Neither country saw wage levels converge despite contrasting migration patterns from/to high-wage areas. Local labor demand shifts raise nominal wages similarly, although in Canada they attract immigrant and highly skilled workers more while raising housing costs less. Chinese import competition had a weaker negative impact on manufacturing employment in Canada. These results are consistent with Canada’s more redistributive transfer system and larger, more educated immigrant workforce.

Intergenerational income mobility is lower in the United States than in Canada but varies significantly within each country. Our subnational analysis finds that the national border only partially distinguishes the approximately 1,000 regions we analyze within these countries. The Canada-US border divides central and eastern Canada from the US Great Lakes and northeastern regions. Simultaneously, some Canadian regions have more in common with the low-mobility southern parts of the United States than with the rest of Canada; that these areas represent a much larger fraction of the US population also explains why mobility is lower in the United States.

Since 2000, US real average wages stagnated or declined while Canadian wages increased. We investigate the role of the Canadian resource boom in explaining this difference. We focus on wage spillovers to nonresource workers through a bargaining channel. We find that long-distance commuting to resource regions had substantial spillover effects on noncommuters in sending regions. Through spillovers, we account for 49% of the increase in the real mean wage in Canada between 2000 and 2012. We also find long-distance commuting effects in the United States. We conclude that long-distance commuting integrates regions, spreading benefits and costs of booms across the economy.

In the last three decades, Canada and the United States showed different paths in per capita gross domestic product growth, skill premiums, and inequality. Worker quality and price differences both play a role but are difficult to distinguish. Human capital prices and quantities are estimated using methods we developed previously. In the United States, there was faster growth and a much more rapid rise in skill premia and inequality. This was primarily due to different paths for the relative price paid to rent high-skilled human capital in the two countries, rather than differences in relative quantities.

Using the Youth in Transition Survey, we estimate a Roy model with a three-dimensional latent factor structure to consider how parental valuation of education, cognitive skills, and noncognitive skills influence endogenous schooling decisions and subsequent labor market outcomes. We find that the effect of cognitive skills on adult incomes arises by increasing the likelihood of obtaining further education. Furthermore, we find that both noncognitive skills and parental valuation for education play a larger role in determining income at age 25 than cognitive skills. Last, our analysis uncovers striking differences between men and women in several of the estimated relationships.