Ecosystems driven by wildfire regimes are characterized by fire size distributions resembling power laws. Existing models produce power laws, but their predicted exponents are too high and fail to capture the exponent’s variation with geographic region. Here we present a minimal model of fire dynamics that describes fire spread as a stochastic birth-death process, analogous to stochastic population growth or disease spread and incorporating memory effects from previous fires. The model reproduces multiple regional patterns in fire regimes and allows us to classify different regions in terms of their proximity to a critical threshold. Transitions across this critical threshold imply abrupt and pronounced increases in average fire size. The model predicts that large regions in Canada are currently close to this transition and might be driven beyond the threshold in the future. We illustrate this point by analyzing the time series for large fires (>199 ha) from the Canadian Boreal Plains, found to have shifted from a subcritical regime to a critical regime in the recent past. By contrast to its predecessor, the model also suggests that a critical transition, and not self-organized criticality, underlies forest fire dynamics, with implications for other ecological systems exhibiting power-law-like patterns, in particular for their sensitivity to environmental change and control efforts.

Bacteriocin production is a spiteful behavior of bacteria that is central to the competitive dynamics of many human pathogens. Social evolution predicts that bacteriocin production is favored when bacteriocin-producing cells are mixed at intermediate frequency with their competitors and when competitive neighborhoods are localized. Both predictions are supported by biofilm experiments. However, the means by which physical and biological processes interact to produce conditions that favor the evolution of bacteriocin production remain to be investigated. Here we fill this gap using analytical and computational approaches. We identify and collapse key parameters into a single number, the critical bacteriocin range, that measures the threshold distance from a focal bacteriocin-producing cell within which its fitness is higher than that of a sensitive cell. We develop an agent-based model to test our predictions and confirm that bacteriocin production is most favored when relatedness is intermediate and competition is local. We then use invasion analysis to determine evolutionarily stable strategies for bacteriocin production. Finally, we perform long-term evolutionary simulations to analyze how the critical bacteriocin range and genetic lineage segregation affect biodiversity in multistrain biofilms. We find that biodiversity is maintained in highly segregated biofilms for a wide array of critical bacteriocin ranges. However, under conditions of high nutrient penetration leading to well-mixed biofilms, biodiversity rapidly decreases and becomes sensitive to the critical bacteriocin range.

Parasite strategies for exploiting host resources are key determinants of disease severity (i.e., virulence) and infectiousness (i.e., transmission between hosts). By iterating the development of theory and empirical tests, we investigated whether variation in parasite traits across two genetically distinct clones of the rodent malaria parasite, Plasmodium chabaudi, explains differences in within-host infection dynamics and virulence. First, we experimentally tested key predictions of our earlier modeling work. As predicted, the more virulent genotype produced more progeny parasites per infected cell (burst size), but in contrast to predictions, invasion rates of red blood cells (RBCs) did not differ between the genotypes studied. Second, we further developed theory by confronting our earlier model with these new data, testing a new set of models that incorporate more biological realism, and developing novel theoretical tools for identifying differences between parasite genotypes. Overall, we found robust evidence that differences in burst sizes contribute to variation in dynamics and that differential interactions between parasites and host immune responses also play a role. In contrast to previous work, our model predicts that RBC age structure is not important for explaining dynamics. Integrating theory and empirical tests is a potentially powerful way of progressing understanding of disease biology.

The prevalence of polyploidy among flowering plants is surprising given the hurdles impeding the establishment and persistence of novel polyploid lineages. In the absence of strong assortative mating, reproductive assurance, or large intrinsic fitness advantages, new polyploid lineages face almost certain extinction through minority cytotype exclusion. Consequently, much work has focused on a search for adaptive advantages associated with polyploidy such as increased competitive ability, enhanced ecological tolerances, and increased resistance to pathogens. Yet, no consistent adaptive advantages of polyploidy have been identified. Here, to investigate the potential for autopolyploid establishment and persistence in the absence of any intrinsic fitness advantages, we develop a simulation model of a diploid population that sporadically gives rise to novel autopolyploids. The autopolyploids have only very small levels of initial assortative mating or niche differentiation, generated entirely by dosage effects of genome duplication, and they have realistic levels of reproductive assurance. Our results show that by allowing assortative mating and competitive interactions to evolve, establishment of novel autopolyploid lineages becomes common. Additional scenarios where adaptive optima change over time reveal that rapid environmental change promotes the replacement of diploid lineages by their autopolyploid descendants. These results help to explain recent empirical findings that suggest that many contemporary polyploid lineages arose during the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction, without invoking adaptive advantages of polyploidy.

In basic intraguild predation (IGP) systems, predators and prey also compete for a shared resource. Theory predicts that persistence of these systems is possible when intraguild prey is superior in competition and productivity is not too high. IGP often results from ontogenetic niche shifts, in which the diet of intraguild predators changes as a result of growth in body size (life-history omnivory). As a juvenile, a life-history omnivore competes with the species that becomes its prey later in life. Competition can hence limit growth of young predators, while adult predators can suppress consumers and therewith neutralize negative effects of competition. We formulate and analyze a stage-structured model that captures both basic IGP and life-history omnivory. The model predicts increasing coexistence of predators and consumers when resource use of stage-structured predators becomes more stage specific. This coexistence depends on adult predators requiring consumer biomass for reproduction and is less likely when consumers outcompete juvenile predators, in contrast to basic IGP. Therefore, coexistence occurs when predation structures the community and competition is negligible. Consequently, equilibrium patterns over productivity resemble those of three-species food chains. Life-history omnivory thus provides a mechanism that allows intraguild predators and prey to coexist over a wide range of resource productivity.

Although bacteriophage have been reported to be the most abundant organisms on earth, little is known about their contribution to the ecology of natural communities of their host bacteria. Most importantly, what role do these viral parasitoids play in regulating the densities of bacterial populations? To address this question, we use experimental communities of Vibrio cholerae and its phage in continuous culture, and we use mathematical models to explore the population dynamic and evolutionary conditions under which phage, rather than resources, will limit the densities of these bacteria. The results of our experiments indicate that single species of bacterial viruses cannot maintain the density of V. cholerae populations at levels much lower than that anticipated on the basis of resources alone. On the other hand, as few as two species of phage can maintain these bacteria at densities more than two orders of magnitude lower than the densities of the corresponding phage-free controls for extensive periods. Using mathematical models and short-term experiments, we explore the population dynamic processes responsible for these results. We discuss the implications of this experimental and theoretical study for the population and evolutionary dynamics of natural populations of bacteria and phage.

Ecological diversification presents an enduring puzzle: how do novel ecological strategies evolve in organisms that are already adapted to their ecological niche? Most attempts to answer this question posit a primary role for genetic drift, which could carry populations through or around fitness “valleys” representing maladaptive intermediate phenotypes between alternative niches. Sexual selection and conflict are thought to play an ancillary role by initiating reproductive isolation and thereby facilitating divergence in ecological traits through genetic drift or local adaptation. Here, I synthesize theory and evidence suggesting that sexual selection and conflict could play a more central role in the evolution and diversification of ecological strategies through the co-optation of sexual traits for viability-related functions. This hypothesis rests on three main premises, all of which are supported by theory and consistent with the available evidence. First, sexual selection and conflict often act at cross-purposes to viability selection, thereby displacing populations from the local viability optimum. Second, sexual traits can serve as preadaptations for novel viability-related functions. Third, ancestrally sex-limited sexual traits can be transferred between sexes. Consequently, by allowing populations to explore a broad phenotypic space around the current viability optimum, sexual selection and conflict could act as powerful drivers of ecological adaptation and diversification.

The reasons why metabolic rate (B) scales allometrically with body mass (M) remain hotly debated. The field is dominated by correlational analyses of the relationship between B and M; these struggle to disentangle competing explanations because both B and M are confounded with ontogeny, life history, and ecology. Here, we overcome these problems by using an experimental approach to test among competing metabolic theories. We examined the scaling of B in size-manipulated and intact colonies of a bryozoan and show that B scales with M^0.5. To explain this, we apply a general model based on the dynamic energy budget theory for metabolic organization that predicts B on the basis of energy allocation to assimilation, maintenance, growth, and maturation. Uniquely, this model predicts the absolute value of B, emphasizes that there is no single scaling exponent of B, and demonstrates that a single model can explain the variation in B seen in nature.

Environmental change can shift the phenotype of an organism through either evolutionary or nongenetic processes. Despite abundant evidence of phenotypic change in response to recent climate change, we typically lack sufficient genetic data to identify the role of evolution. We present a method of using phenotypic data to characterize the hypothesized role of natural selection and environmentally driven phenotypic shifts (plasticity). We modeled historical selection and environmental predictors of interannual variation in mean population phenotype using a multivariate state-space model framework. Through model comparisons, we assessed the extent to which an estimated selection differential explained observed variation better than environmental factors alone. We applied the method to a 60-year trend toward earlier migration in Columbia River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, producing estimates of annual selection differentials, average realized heritability, and relative cumulative effects of selection and plasticity. We found that an evolutionary response to thermal selection was capable of explaining up to two-thirds of the phenotypic trend. Adaptive plastic responses to June river flow explain most of the remainder. This method is applicable to other populations with time series data if selection differentials are available or can be reconstructed. This method thus augments our toolbox for predicting responses to environmental change.

Fast growth can be costly, so trade-offs between growth and fitness are to be predicted when organisms adjust their growth to compensate for earlier environmental conditions. We developed four generic models of increasing complexity with different processes to predict the indeterminate growth of vertebrate ectotherms, which is sensitive to ambient temperature even when food is not limiting. We contrast the predictions of the models with observed experimental data on growth trajectories, feeding activity, and reproductive investment of three-spined sticklebacks and inferred patterns of accumulation of biomolecular damage arising from activity and growth. All models predicted observed patterns of compensatory growth (both accelerating and decelerating) in response to earlier temperature perturbations, but the more complex models provided the best fit to experimental data. Growth trajectories influenced future reproductive investment regardless of final body size at breeding. Our findings suggest that while models with fewer parameters can predict basic patterns of growth in stable conditions, they cannot capture the costly long-term effects of deviations from steady growth trajectories. In contrast, models in which foraging activity is assumed to carry costs are capable of predicting the complex patterns of feeding, growth, and reproductive investment seen in animals, with the cost of a heightened mortality risk (e.g., through predation) being more important than the cost of increased physiological damage.

The evolution of group living has attracted considerable attention from behavioral ecologists working on a wide range of study species. However, theoretical research in this field has been largely focused on cooperative breeders. We extend this line of work to species that lack alloparental care (hereafter termed “noncooperative species”) but that may benefit from grouping by jointly defending a common territory. We adopt a demographically explicit approach in which the rates of births and deaths as well as the dispersal decisions of individuals in the population determine the turnover rates of territories and the competition for breeding vacancies thus arising. Our results reveal that some of the factors thought to affect the evolution of cooperative breeding also affect the evolution of group living in noncooperative species. Specifically, high fecundity and low mortality of resident individuals both increase the degree of habitat saturation and make joining an established group more profitable for nonresidents (floaters). Moreover, if floaters can forcefully take over territories, the degree of habitat saturation also affects the chance that residents become targets of takeovers. In this situation, communal defense of territories becomes an important benefit that further promotes the evolution of group living.

How do several characteristics adapt to gravity while mutually influencing each other? Our study addresses this issue by focusing on the terrestrial gastropod shell. The geometric relationship between the spire index (

Selective predation of aposematic signals is expected to promote phenotypic uniformity. But while these signals may be uniform within a population, numerous species display impressive variations in warning signals among adjacent populations. Predators from different localities who learn to avoid distinct signals while performing intense selection on others are thus expected to maintain such a geographic organization. We tested this assumption by placing clay frog models, representing distinct color morphs of the Peruvian poison dart frog Ranitomeya imitator and a nonconspicuous frog, reciprocally between adjacent localities. In each locality, avian predators were able to discriminate between warning signals; the adjacent exotic morph experienced up to four times more attacks than the local one and two times more than the nonconspicuous phenotype. Moreover, predation attempts on the exotic morph quickly decreased to almost nil, suggesting rapid learning. This experiment offers direct evidence for the existence of different predator communities performing localized homogenizing selection on distinct aposematic signals.