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Bias‐Corrected Estimates of GED Returns

James J. Heckman

University of Chicago and American Bar Foundation

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Paul A. LaFontaine

Center for Social Program Evaluation, American Bar Foundation

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University of Chicago and American Bar FoundationCenter for Social Program Evaluation, American Bar Foundation

Abstract

Using three sources of data, this article examines the direct economic return to General Educational Development (GED) certification for both native and immigrant high school dropouts. One data source—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—is plagued by nonresponse and allocation bias from the hot deck procedure that biases the estimated return to the GED upward. Correcting for allocation bias and ability bias, there is no direct economic return to GED certification. An apparent return to GED certification with age found in the raw CPS data is due to dropouts becoming more skilled over time. These results apply to both native‐born and immigrant populations.

Journal of Labor Economics

Volume 24, Number 3July 2006Program Evaluation, Human Capital, and Labor Market Public Policy: A Research Conference in Honor of Mark C. Berger

Published for the Society of Labor Economists, Economics Research Center/ NORC

Article DOI

https://doi.org/10.1086/504278

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