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1 December 2007

Volume 196, Number 11
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2007;196:1679–1684
0022-1899/2007/19611-0016$15.00
DOI: 10.1086/522007
MAJOR ARTICLE

Transmission of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 within Flocks during the 2004 Epidemic in Thailand

Thanawat Tiensin,1,5

Mirjam Nielen,5

Hans Vernooij,5

Thaweesak Songserm,4

Wantanee Kalpravidh,2

Sirikan Chotiprasatintara,1

Arunee Chaisingh,3

Surapong Wongkasemjit,3

Karoon Chanachai,1

Weerapong Thanapongtham,1

Thinnarat Srisuvan,3 and

Arjan Stegeman5

1Department of Livestock Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, 2Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 3National Institute of Animal Health, Bangkok, and 4Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Kasetsart University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand; 5Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

This present study is the first to quantify the transmission of avian influenza virus H5N1 within flocks during the 2004 epidemic in Thailand. It uses the flock‐level mortality data to estimate the transmission‐rate parameter (β) and the basic reproduction number (R0). The point estimates of β varied from 2.26/day (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01–2.55) for a 1‐day infectious period to 0.66/day (95% CI, 0.50–0.87) for a 4‐day infectious period, whereas the accompanying R0 varied from 2.26 (95% CI, 2.01–2.55) to 2.64 (95% CI, 2.02–3.47). Although the point estimates of β of backyard chickens and fighting cocks raised together were lower than those of laying hens and broiler chickens, this difference was not statistically significant. These results will enable us to assess the control measures in simulation studies. They also indicate that, for the elimination of the virus, a critical proportion of the susceptible poultry population in a flock (i.e., 80% of the population) needs to be vaccinated.

Received 19 December 2006; accepted 9 February 2007; electronically published 25 October 2007.

Reprints or correspondence: Thanawat Tiensin, Dept. of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands (, ).

Global Theme Issue: Poverty and Human Development

Cited by

M. LESNOFF, M. PEYRE, P. C. DUARTE, J.-F. RENARD, J. C. MARINER. (2009) A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection 1
Online publication date: 30-Apr-2009.
CrossRef
M. P. WARD, D. MAFTEI, C. APOSTU, A. SURU. (2009) Estimation of the basic reproductive number ( R0) for epidemic, highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 spread. Epidemiology and Infection 137:02, 219
Online publication date: 1-Mar-2009.
CrossRef
Y-X. Hao, J-M. Yang, C. He, Q. Liu, Tim A. McAllister. (2008) Reduced Serologic Response to Avian Influenza Vaccine in Specific-Pathogen-Free Chicks Inoculated with Cryptosporidium baileyi. Avian Diseases 52:4, 690
Online publication date: 1-Feb-2008.
CrossRef
  • Potential conflicts of interest: none reported.

    Financial support: Royal Government of Thailand (scholarship to T.T.); Thai Department of Livestock Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (support to T.T.).

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