Deadweight Costs and the Size of Government*
University of Chicago
We provide a model for analyzing effects of the tax system and spending programs on the determination of government spending and taxpayer welfare. An improvement in the efficiency of either taxes or spending would reduce political pressure for suppressing the growth of government and thereby increase total tax revenue and spending. We demonstrate the similarity of the political responses to revenue shocks, spending shocks, changes in tax efficiency, and changes in spending program efficiency. Empirical analysis of oil shocks, intergovernmental grants, and other autonomous changes in taxes or spending indicates that cause and effect is not only from spending to tax structures.
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We appreciate the comments of David Bradford, Austan Goolsbee, Bob Inman, Matt MacDonald, Milton Friedman, Jonathan Hamilton, Kevin M. Murphy, Richard Posner, Sherwin Rosen, Paul Rubin, Bob Topel, John Wallis, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at Stanford University, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the American Enterprise Institute, and the University of Chicago; and the research assistance of Song Han, Erica Landes, Pakshun Ng, and Irina Zavina. Mulligan gratefully acknowledges the Olin Foundation for its financial support under its Faculty Fellowship. Becker and Mulligan grateful acknowledge financial support from the Smith‐Richardson Foundation and George Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.

